Here is a link to the Climate Change Report from the IPCC :https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/
Here is a copy of the text of the report concerning us here in Europe.
If you go to the website you will see there are assessments for all of the world.
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Key Risk 2: Heat and drought stress on crops
Substantive agricultural production losses are projected for most European areas over the 21st century, which will not be offset by
gains in Northern Europe (high confidence). While irrigation is an effective adaptation option for agriculture, the ability to adapt using
irrigation will be increasingly limited by water availability, especially in response to GWL above 3°C (high confidence)
Fact sheet - Europe
Climate change impacts and risks
Our current 1.1°C warmer world is already affecting natural and
human systems in Europe (very high confidence). Impacts of
compound heatwaves and droughts have become more frequent
(medium confidence). Largely negative impacts are projected for
southern regions.
Climate Change Impacts and Risks
Figure 1:
Changes in climate hazards for
global warming levels of 1.5ºC
and 3ºC based on the CMIP6
ensemble (Gutiérrez et al., 2021)
with respect to the baseline
period 1995-2014, combined with
information on present exposure
or vulnerability:
(a,b) number of days with
temperature maximum above
35ºC (TX35) and population
density (European Comission,
2019);
(c,d) daily precipitation maximum
(Rx1 d) and built-up area
(JRCdatacatalogue, 2021);
{Figure 13.4 panels a – d}
Key Risk 1: Mortality and morbidity of people and changes in ecosystems due to heat
The number of deaths and people at risk of heat stress will increase two- to threefold at 3ºC compared with 1.5ºC GWL (high
confidence). Above 3°C GWL, there are limits to the adaptation potential of people and existing health systems (high confidence).
Warming will decrease suitable habitat space for current terrestrial and marine ecosystems and irreversibly change their composition,
increasing in severity above 2°C GWL (very high confidence). Fire-prone areas are projected to expand across Europe, threatening
biodiversity and carbon sinks (medium confidence).
Key Risks
Four key risks (KR) have been identified for Europe, with most
becoming more severe at 2°C global warming level (GWL)
compared to 1.5°C GWL in scenarios with low to medium
adaptation (high confidence). From 3°C GWL and even with
high adaptation, severe risks remain for many sectors in Europe
(high confidence)
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Key Risk 4: Flooding and sea level rise
Above 3°C GWL, damage costs and people affected by
precipitation and river flooding may double. Coastal flood
damage is projected to increase at least 10-fold by the end of the
21st century, and even more or earlier with current adaptation
and mitigation (high confidence). Sea level rise represents an
existential threat for coastal communities and their cultural
heritage, particularly beyond 2100.
• Key Risk 1 (heat): behavioural change combined with building
interventions, space cooling and urban planning to manage heat
risks; restoration, expansion and connection of protected areas for
ecosystems
• Key Risk 2 (agriculture): irrigation, vegetation cover, changes in
farming practices, crop and animal species, and shifting planting;
[fire and forest management, and agroecology]
• Key Risk 3 (water scarcity): efficiency improvements, water
storage, water reuse, early warning systems, and land use
change
Barriers
Key barriers are limited resources, lack of private sector and citizens
engagement, insufficient mobilisation of finance, lack of political
leadership, and low sense of urgency. Most of the adaptation
options to the key risks depend on limited water and land resources,
creating competition and trade-offs, also with mitigation options and
socio-economic developments (high confidence)
Adaptation Options and Barriers
Residual risks
In many parts of Europe, existing and planned adaptation
measures are not sufficient to avoid the residual risk, especially
beyond 1.5°C GWL (high confidence). Residual risk can result in
losses of habitat and ecosystem services, heat related deaths,
crop failures, water rationing during droughts in Southern
Europe, and loss of land (medium confidence).
Climate Resilient Development
Closing the adaptation gap requires moving beyond short-term planning and ensuring timely and adequate implementation (high
confidence). Inclusive, equitable and just adaptation pathways are critical for climate resilient development. The success of adaptation will
depend on our understanding of which adaptation options are feasible and effective in their local context (high confidence).
Adaptation options
There is a growing range of adaptation options available today to deal with future climate risks (high confidence). Examples for
adaptation to the key risks include:
Figure 2: Burning ember diagrams for key risks for Europe with low to medium adaptation.
Key Risk 3: Water scarcity
In Southern Europe, more than a third of the population will be
exposed to water scarcity at 2°C GWL; under 3°C GWL, this risk
will double, and significant economic losses in water and energy
dependent sectors may arise (medium confidence). For Western
Central and Southern Europe, and for many cities, the risk of
water scarcity will increase strongly under 3°C GWL.
• Key Risk 4 (flooding):
early warning systems, reserving space
for water and ecosystem-based adaptation, sediment or
engineering based options, land use change and managed
retreat
• Nature-based solutions with safeguards for flood protection
and heat alleviation are themselves under threat from
warming, extreme heat, drought and sea level rise (high
confidence).
I understand that at this moment we are all worried about the awful situation in the Ukraine, but we still need to carry on with trying to stop climate change, if we do nothing then when the Ukraine crisis is over we will be in an even worse situation.
We still have to carry on trying to do our best, this is not going away. As I have said so many times before, everyone has to do their bit, it is not okay to say, "well thats not my job or i'm too busy" or any other lame excuse, only one thing is true, we are destroying our only home, act now, keep on acting.
The blog song for today is: "Good times, bad times" by Led Zeppelin
TTFN
Alex Kamczyc
